The Fed still believes that the policy is appropriate and plans not to change it for at least a year, although the lines reveal that in the future it will be easier to cut interest rates than to increase. The ECB will present a similar propensity to do nothing today. The results of the election in Great Britain only shortly before midnight.Przemawia prezes EBC, Draghi
Yesterday the Fed tried hard to convey that monetary policy is appropriate and will remain so until at least the end of 2020. As expected, the Federal Reserve has left the target for the federal reserve rate at 1.50-1.75 percent. In the dot plot projection, the median suggests no change in interest rates throughout 2020 with subsequent gradual increases up to the long-term target of 2.50 percent. The communique ceased to scare the fragment about "uncertainty around the global economy" and replaced it with observation of "global events". However, what the Fed treats as a neutral approach is an invitation to disbelief for the market. And this impression was strengthened during the press conference of President Powell, who admitted that before raising interest rates he wants inflation to remain stable and high. So even if the economic conditions for inflation rise appear, the Fed's reaction will come much later. In turn, the sensitivity to deterioration of perspectives remains as we could see with three reductions this year. And because the market is still afraid of the negative consequences of trade wars, the return of reductions is treated as more likely. As a result, the dollar loses, but not much, because the pressure from future monetary policy is primarily determined by the development of US-China trade relations. And here we are still waiting for what President Trump will do about the duties being prepared for December 15. And because the market is still afraid of the negative consequences of trade wars, the return of reductions is treated as more likely. As a result, the dollar loses, but not much, because the pressure from future monetary policy is primarily determined by the development of US-China trade relations. And here we are still waiting for what President Trump will do about the duties being prepared for December 15. And because the market is still afraid of the negative consequences of trade wars, the return of reductions is treated as more likely. As a result, the dollar loses, but not much, because the pressure from future monetary policy is primarily determined by the development of US-China trade relations. And here we are still waiting for what President Trump will do about the duties being prepared for December 15.
Do nicnierobienia szykuje się też Europejski Bank Centralny. Od września, kiedy zakomunikowano nowe narzędzia luzowania monetarnego, sytuacja gospodarcza w strefie euro ustabilizowała się. Prognozy wzrostu PKB i inflacji powinny pozostać bez większych zmian, a Rada Zarządzająca może sobie pozwolić na podtrzymanie trybu wait-and-see i analizować wpływ ogłoszonego we wrześniu pakietu stymulacyjnego. W samej Radzie nie brakuje krytyków ujemnych stóp procentowych i skupu aktywów. To z jednej strony skłania bank do rozpoczęcia przeglądu skuteczności strategii banku, na efekty czego przyjdzie jednak poczekać kilka miesięcy. Z drugiej, buduje na rynku przekonanie, że dalsze obniżki są bardzo mało prawdopodobne – rynek pieniężny dyskontuje zaledwie 3 pb cięcia do końca 2020 r. Stąd dziś przede wszystkim będzie chodzić o inaugurację nowej prezes Christine Lagarde i zaznajomienie się z jej stylem komunikacji, choć powinniśmy oczekiwać podtrzymania dotychczasowego nastawienia banku.
Great Britain is going to elections and until polls are closed and exit poll announced (23:00) GBP should be stable. Later, anything can happen, although the conservative party's best chances are to win. The strength of the next pound rally depends on how big it will be. The Tory victory means that Boris Johnson will receive the tools to bring Brexit to the end by January 31, 2020. The risk is the so-called suspended parliament - with no majority for any party - leading to a minority conservative government. Then the pre-election status quo will remain, decision-making paralysis, and fears of non-contractual divorce with the EU will return. As a result, the pound will have to give away all the positive premium associated with the dismissal of the risk of non-contractual Brexit, as well as the impact of speculative short positions will be strengthened. The surrender of the Labor Party may ultimately mean a repeated referendum (which may be positive for GBP more than the agreed Brexit), but along the way it means chaos. There are several options, and as we know well, in British politics nothing can be ruled out.