Partia Konserwatywna odniosła ogromne zwycięstwo w wyborach, okres paraliżu politycznego dobiegł końca a droga do brexitu 31 stycznia jest szeroko otwarta. Zwycięstwo torysów jest pozytywnym impulsem dla funta, ale na ten moment już w pełni zdyskontowanym. Dobre wieści z Wielkiej Brytanii zbiegają się z oznaki załagodzenia konfliktu handlowego USA-Chiny. Apetyt na ryzyko rośnie, ale z nim też ryzyko sprzedaż faktów i porządkowania arkuszy zleceń przed końcem roku.
Data collected from almost all constituencies show that the Conservative Party won the decisive victory by winning over 360 seats in the House of Commons, which gives them an absolute majority almost. This is the Tories' best result until 1987, outclassing the Labor Party for which this election is the worst since 1935. Britain will finally have a stable government with a strong mandate to pursue policy. In the most important issue of Brexit, this means that Boris Johnson's agreement will be quickly ratified and implemented into British law, and the date of leaving the EU on January 31, 2020 will not be postponed again.
Pound it jumped strongly after announcing the results mainly by zeroing the risk of non-contractual Brexit, and the scale of the move was also due to the fact that the market did not quite want to believe the polls, which have failed several times in recent years. But now, as the outcome of the election is certain, the market could fully discount it. Further fuel for growth may temporarily run out, because keeping the Brexit date does not mean that Brexit has fully achieved. After 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom will enter a transition period during which it will negotiate with Brussels future future trade relations. However, there is very little time, because until the end of 2020. An extension (up to two years) is an option that, however, may not appeal to extreme Brexitists in the Conservative Party. However, the high Tory win can give Johnson room for maneuver, not to be forced to rely on the eurosceptic voices and look for a milder agreement with the EU. Such a scenario is not excluded and would be the basis for further strengthening of the pound in the future. But now these are just unconfirmed speculations and especially before the Christmas break investors may be more interested in securing profits from the current rally.
The relief effect from the evaporation of the risk of non-contractual Brexit is compounded by positive decisions in the US-China trade dispute. According to (unconfirmed) press reports, the parties plan to sign a First Phase agreement, which provides for no customs duties to be imposed on Chinese goods planned for December 15, and cut tariffs on goods worth USD 360 billion by half. For investors, Trump was assured that the agreement was credible, that the US "is VERY close to the GREAT AGREEMENT."
To nie koniec wojny handlowej. Z informacji wynika, że kluczowe kwestie stanowiące pierwotne źródło sporu, nie są załatwione w umowie Pierwszej Fazy, a Druga Faza ma nastąpić dopiero po wyborach prezydenckich w USA na jesieni przyszłego roku. Ale dla rynku istotne jest, że nie dojdzie do eskalacji konfliktu, dzięki temu globalna gospodarka uniknie dalszej deterioracji zaufania. Mimo to mam wątpliwości, na ile euforia z tytułu porozumienia się utrzyma. W końcu zawarcie umowy było wyceniane przez rynki od tygodni przy częstym bagatelizowaniu wszelkich informacji wskazujących problemy w negocjacjach. Stąd dziś może być ostatnia szansa dla rynków, by świętować, za to w ostatnim „normalnym” tygodniu przed świętami czekają nas porządki i sprzedaż faktów.