PlanB forecast: Bitcoin will surprise positively in 2024-2028
PlanB presented its scenario clearly and precisely:
- 2024 (year-end): USD 150,000
- 2025: USD 800,000
- 2026: $400,000
- 2027: $300,000
- 2028: $400,000
Those who follow the analyst's activities probably know that the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is known for analyzing the ratio of stocks to the flow of new supply, which allows forecasting future prices of assets such as gold or Bitcoin. PlanB has updated this model to the S2F^3 version, adding power law elements that are intended to even more accurately reflect the behavior of BTC prices in the future.
PlanB acknowledges that its projections may seem unlikely, but emphasizes that “$800,000 would be consistent with the best-fit, highest R2, historical data model.” This means that, according to his analysis, historical data should support such high valuations in the coming years.
In mid-2024, there are at least several key factors that may determine whether PlanB's forecast will come true:
- Investor sentiment: Investor optimism or pessimism towards Bitcoin can significantly impact its price. An increase in interest in BTC as a safe haven in the face of inflation or the instability of traditional markets may increase its value.
- Institutional Adoption: Increased involvement of financial institutions, especially through products such as the spot Bitcoin ETF, may contribute to an increase in the price of BTC. Institutional investors are bringing more capital and stability to the cryptocurrency market.
- Regulation and Politics: Regulatory decisions can have both positive and negative impacts on the cryptocurrency market. Friendly regulations may encourage larger investments, while restrictive regulations may inhibit market development.
