Mniej niż dobę trwała stabilizacja nastrojów na rynkach finansowych i już wracamy do eskalacji obaw o skutki epidemii koronawirusa. Tymczasowe wstrzymanie operacji zagranicznych firm w Chinach stało się świeżym katalizatorem pesymistycznych wizji dla perspektyw ożywienia drugiej gospodarki świata. Risk-off wywiera presję na indeksy i ceny ropy naftowej, na rynku walutowym w cenie ponownie są jen, frank i dolar.
Podtrzymuję zdanie, że dopóki nie pojawią się sygnały, że tempo rozprzestrzeniania się koronawirusa nie wyhamuje i nie miniemy szczytu w liczbie zakażonych (prawdopodobnie pod koniec następnego tygodnia), rynki pozostaną wrażliwe na wszelkie negatywne informacje związane ze skutkami epidemii. Temat przyciąga uwagę oraz dominuje w dyskusjach inwestorów i nawet, jeśli chciałoby się zbagatelizować ten czynnik, to trzeba respektować konsensus i związane z tym reakcje aktywów.
Yesterday the Fed did not take the opportunity to calm investors. The decision to keep the federal reserves target unchanged and the guarantee of maintaining liquidity programs at least until April were in line with expectations. At a press conference, Fed President Powell expressed dissatisfaction with the persistence of low inflation, which could lower inflation expectations. Some have heard this as a dovish signal that opens the door for interest rate cuts in the coming months, but I think these are too far-reaching conclusions fueled by the current mood of panic. As long as the assessment of the economic outlook remains optimistic (as presented by the Fed) and the risks for growth are low, the Fed will prefer a wait-and-see attitude. Increased chances for cutting in March from 5% up to 18 percent is reacting.USD was almost imperceptible.
The Bank of England is in the spotlight today. The decision to lower the interest rate may pass with a minimal difference in votes, although we think that better than expected PMI readings from Great Britain have removed pressure from decision makers and provide a gate to refrain from changing monetary policy parameters. The January meeting will also be the last under the management of Mark Carney, who is finishing his term. For rational pros and cons, he may prefer to leave the decision to his successor. Decision to leave the interest rate at 0.75 percent should be accompanied by a message that BoE is closely observing the incoming data and global developments to assess whether the recent improvement and increase in confidence indices is sustainable. With a price cut of over 40%, no change in the dovish rate still offers a positive result for GBP. Adoption of the wait-and-see attitude by BoE should stop blocking the pound, which in the medium term still has a huge risk premium to be deducted from the valuation built around the fear of non-contractual Brexit. Although the Brexit date is already a fact, the uncertainty still concerns the final of the transition period and the state of trade relations with the EU after 2020. However, when it becomes clear that the negotiation period will be extended (probably in the first half of the year), this will give more room for pound appreciation.